Tiếng Việt- 1 Law No. 21/2017/QH14 dated November 14, 2017 on planning
- 2 Decision No. 39/2018/QD-TTg dated September 10, 2018 amending several Decision 37/2011/QD-TTg on provison of assistance in development of wind power projects in Vietnam
- 3 Law No. 64/2020/QH14 dated June 18, 2020 on Public – Private Partnership Investment
- 4 Announcement No. 308/TB-VPCP dated November 09, 2021 on verdict of Deputy Prime Minister Le Van Thanh at the meeting with The Ministry Of Industry And Trade (moit) on completion of the national power development plan for 2021 – 2030, with a vision toward 2045 (pdp8)
- 5 Resolution No. 55-NQ/TW dated February 11, 2020 on orientations of strategy for national energy development by 2030 with a vision towards 2045
- 6 Official Dispatch No. 3787/BCT-DL dated July 04, 2022 on Reviewing the 8th Electricity Planning
| MINISTRY OF INDUSTRY AND TRADE OF VIETNAM | SOCIALIST REPUBLIC OF VIETNAM |
| No. 4329/BCT-DL | Hanoi, July 25, 2022 |
To: The Government
Implementing tasks approved by the Prime Minister, Ministry of Industry and Trade has cooperated with ministries, departments, and local governments in implementing the Scheme for National electricity development planning during 2021-2030 and vision to 2045 (the 8th Electricity Planning) and presented to the Prime Minister under Presentation No. 1682/TTr-BCT dated March 26, 2021 and Presentation No. 6277/TTr-BCT dated October 8, 2021.
Pursuant to Notice No. 92/TB-VPCP dated March 31, 2022 of the Prime Minister publicizing conclusions of the Government regarding the 8th Electricity Planning, Ministry of Industry and trade has fully developed by the Scheme, adopted appraisal procedures as per the Law on Planning and obtained approval from the Appraisal council which is directed by the Deputy Prime Minister Le Van Thanh. On April 29, 2022, the Ministry of Industry and Trade presented the Presentation No. 2279/TTr-BCT approving the Scheme of the 8th Electricity Planning to the Prime Minister. The Ministry of Industry and Trade hereby reports review results of the 8th Electricity Planning as follows:
1. Current conditions of electrical system and implementation of national electricity planning
a) Consumption of commercial electricity during 2011-2020
Average commercial electricity growth rate reached 10,7%/year during 2011-2015, 7,7%/year during 2016-2020, 9,6%/year during 20211-2020 (only 3,4% in 2020 alone due to COVID-19).
Electricity consumption primarily concentrates in the Northern and Southern regions and accounts for over 90% of total electricity consumption nationwide. The Central Region accounts for less than 10%. Electricity consumption of the Northern Region tends to gradually increase (39,2% in 2011, 44,1% in 2020) while electricity consumption of the Southern Region tends to gradually decrease(51,1% in 2011, 47% in 2020).
b) Electricity source development
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c) Development of renewable energy
(i) Solar power projects
During 2016-2020, total number of solar power projects approved for additional planning is 175 projects with total capacity of 19.126 MWp (equivalent to approximately 15.400 MW ac). Projects approved for additional planning are primarily located in the Central and Southern regions (accounting for more than 96%). To be specific:
- There are 58 projects whose planning is approved by the Prime Minister (13.337 MWp, 11.080 MW), among which, 55 projects (12.727 MWp, 10.181 MW) are primarily located in the Central Region and the Southern Region (accounting for 95%) and 3 projects (610 MWp, 488 MW) are located in the Northern Region. There are 21 projects (5.771 MWp, 4.711 MW) that have been brought into operation (42,5% of all projects) and are all located in the Central and Southern Region.
- There are 117 projects whose planning is approved by the Prime Minister (5.277 MWp, 4.221 MW), among which, 110 projects (5.034 MWp, 4.208 MW) are located in the Central Region and the Southern Region (accounting for 95%) and 7 projects (243 MWp, 194 MW) are located in the Northern Region. There are 110 projects (5.032 MWp, 4.025 MW) that have been brought into operation (95% of all projects), among which, there are 106 projects (4.873 MWp, 3.898 MW) that are located in the Central and Southern regions.
(ii) Wind energy projects
The revised 7th Electricity Planning has approved the list of electricity sources and electrical grids for connection for11.741 MW/188 wind energy projects. Currently, 146 projects/8.171,48 MW have had power purchase agreements signed. Before October 31, 2021 (which is the expiry date of preferential treatment according to Decision No. 39/2018/QD-TTg dated September 10, 2018 of the Prime Minister), 88 wind energy projects with total capacity of 4.119,9 MW have entered into operation. Approximately 99% of wind energy projects (187 projects/11.621 MW) approved for additional planning is primarily located in the Central and Southern regions with only approximately 1% of wind energy projects approved for additional planning are located in the Northern Region.
d) Electrical grid development
By the end of 2020, 8.527 km of 500 kV power line, 18.477 km of 220 kV power line, 37 substations of 500 kV/total capacity of 42.900 MVA, and 136 substations of 220 kV/total capacity of 67.824 MVA have been installed nationwide. In addition, 886 substations, 24.318 km of 110 kV power line, 360.000 km of medium-voltage electrical grid, 350.000 km of low-voltage electrical grid are installed in order to supply power for 28,94 million customers, 100% number of communes, 99,47% number of households (99,18% number of households in rural areas).
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- Total installed capacity of electrical system must meet peak load demand of the entire country while reserve capacity of the system remains unimpressive (9,06% in wet seasons and approximately 8,16% in dry seasons).
- Various electricity sources are behind progress (in the Northern Region, more than 3.000 MW of thermal electricity sources are behind progress; in the Southern Region, more than 3.600 MW of thermal electricity sources are behind progress);
- Developed electricity sources do not conform to load distribution. Electricity source growth in the Northern Region is lower than the peak capacity growth (9,3% compared to 4,7%), electricity source growth in the Central and Southern regions is vastly higher than the peak capacity growth (the Southern Region exceeds by nearly 14 GW of solar power sources, including rooftop solar power).
- Electricity sources are not evenly distributed across the regions (thermal electricity is primarily located in the Northern Region, hydroelectricity is primarily located in the Central Region, and thermal gas electricity is primarily located in the Southern Region).
- Electrical grids face difficulties in operation; some areas of 220 kV and 110 KV electrical grids are full and even overloaded, fail to meet N-1 criterion regarding reliability and underlying risks in operation of electricity system.
- Electrical grid development rate is slower than electricity source development rate and lacks the sync with renewable energy sources.
e) Implementation results of the revised 7th Electricity Planning
- Percentage of implementation of major electricity sources (gas, coal) which play a vital role in ensuring security of electricity supply and as the base-load is low (63%) thereby leading to shortage of supply and low reserve capacity.
- Implemented solar power exceeds the planning goals and is primarily located in the Central and Southern regions.
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2. Results and limitations
a) Results
- Ensure major balance of national energy security during 2016-2020.
- Electricity source scale of Vietnam in 2020 increases by 2 times compared to 2015.
- Renewable energy (wind power, solar power) is developed extensively in order to reduce green house gas and supply electricity.
- Investment in electricity supply infrastructure is developed extensively which helps bring electricity to every corner of the country with 100% communes and wards are powered from the national electrical grid (99,479% of nationwide households are powered).
- Grid connection with neighboring countries are maintained; electricity import continues to be the priority.
- Types of ownership engaging in electricity investment and development diversify thereby reducing investment in electricity development from the budget.
- Use energy more effectively and efficiently (elasticity coefficients reduced from 1,84 times in 2011-2015 to 1,44 times in 2016-2020).
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- Energy industry becomes a dynamic economic sector that contributes towards national socio-economic development, etc.
b) Limitations
- Electricity source development has not conformed to the distribution and development of load thereby causing regional supply - demand imbalance and pressuring interregional transmission grid.
- Major electricity sources are behind progress thereby causing a shortage of base-load electricity sources.
- Reserve capacity of the system is relatively low, in turns hindering operation and requiring load shedding.
- 24,3% of total capacity and 44% of consumed power of wind power and solar power causes difficulty in economic operation of electrical system and affects operation of coal-fired, gas-fired thermal electricity.
- Electricity produced from coal-fired thermal electricity makes up the majority (approximately 50% of total electricity produced) and should be limited in the long term.
- Transmission grid development has not been one step ahead to effectively utilize electricity sources; electrical grid has not been promptly developed and projects have not been implemented for the long term.
- Electricity price is not compelling enough to attract investment and promote, create drive for effective and efficiency use of electricity.
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- Project developers of domestic and foreign electricity sources are technically and financially incompetent thereby causing the projects to be prolonged, etc.
c) Limitations in planning coordination and implementation
- State management of planning remains ineffective.
- Regulations on planning and investment are incomplete, inconsistent, outdated by current practice and resources for implementation, and plagued with difficulties and overlapping matters.
- Level of compliance with planning is not high enough. Cooperation and support of local government are lacking; resource allocation is slow causing planning to be ruined in reality.
- Procedures for resolving difficulties relating to investment of competent authorities are excessive in length; guiding documents are generic and not going into the details, etc.
- Inspection, supervision, and expedition as per planning have not been effective or implemented on a regular basis.
3. Electricity load forecasting
Electricity load forecasting is implemented with 3 scenarios corresponding to 3 GPD growth scenarios in each stage until 2045 set forth under Document of the 13th National Congress of the Communist Party. GDP growth rate in stages is as follows:
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GDP growth scenario/stage
2016-2020
2021-2025
2026-2030
2031-2035
2036-2040
2041-2045
Low Scenario
5,9
...
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...
5,8
5,2
4,8
4,1
Moderate Scenario
5,9
6,8
6,4
6,0
...
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...
5,5
High Scenario
5,9
7,5
7,2
6,6
6,1
6,1
Electricity load forecasting results are as follows:
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- Commercial electricity: Approximately 335,0-346,6 billion kWh by 2025; approximately 491,2-530,4 billion kWh by 2030; approximately 651,3-736,9 billion kWh by 2035; approximately 779,7-938,3 billion kWh by 2040, and approximately 886,9-1.101,1 billion kWh by 2045[1].
Electricity load growth forecasting in 3 scenarios
Growth scenario
2021-2025
2026-2030
2031-2035
2036-2040
2041-2045
Growth rate of commercial electricity from time to time (%)
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8,43
7,14
4,80
2,99
1,76
Base load Scenario
9,09
7,95
5,80
...
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...
2,61
High load Scenario
9,84
8,88
6,80
4,95
3,25
Growth rate of peak capacity from time to time (%)
Low load Scenario
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...
...
7,14
4,80
2,99
1,76
Base load Scenario
8,97
7,84
5,73
3,61
...
...
...
High load Scenario
9,73
8,73
6,66
4,81
3,11
4. Electricity development solutions presented by Ministry of Industry and Trade
On the basis of implementing conclusions of the Government at the meeting regarding the 8th Electricity Planning, commitment of the Prime Minister at the COP26, remarks of the Deputy Prime Minister Le Van Thanh[2] at meetings regarding completion of the 8th Electricity Planning, which require adherence to solutions for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in order to achieve net zero emission by 2050 according to commitment of the Prime Minister at the COP26, additional consideration for offshore wind power, further assessment of optimal and reasonable electricity source reservation of the national and regional electricity system, taking into account operational solutions to guarantee electricity supply when electricity source operation does not meet 100% of the planning and reserve capacity balancing solutions without taking into account solar power sources, Ministry of Industry and Trade updated, reviewed, and reassessed feasibility of electricity sources (especially coal-fired electricity sources that have not been handed over to project developers or have been handed over to project developers but are requested by project developers/local governments to cease implementation); propose electricity source development program in order to supply electricity for socio-economic development from time to time and fulfill long-term goals of Vietnam.
4.1. Rules for setting up electricity development program
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(ii) Develop electricity sources and electrical grids simultaneously; invest in electricity development equally in regions and areas on the basis of reasonable and effective use of primary energy resources of each region and area; refrain from building new interregional transmission lines.
(iii) Adhere to Resolutions of the 13th National Congress of the Communist Party, Resolutions, Action programs, and directions of heads of all levels regarding green and sustainable electricity development. Ensure inheritance of appropriate details of the revised 7th Electricity Planning.
(iv) Prioritize domestically extracted gas for powering electricity production in order to improve autonomy in electricity production and make gradual transition to power-to-gas when the technology is verified. Improve autonomy of electricity sector, minimize dependence on foreign countries for primary fuel.
(v) Ensure commitments of the Prime Minister at the COP26 regarding carbon neutral by 2050; minimize coal-fired thermal power plants in order to minimize CO2 emission; restrict development of new coal-fired thermal power plants after 2030; consider conversion of several projects form coal fuel to LNG. Develop gas-fired thermal electricity using import LNG on an appropriate scale.
(vi) Promote development of renewable energy sources with reasonable costs while ensuring safe operation of electrical systems and economic properties of electrical systems. Prioritize development of renewable energy in a self-sustaining, on-site consumption manner without generating electricity on the national grid.
(vii) Promote development of pumped-storage hydroelectricity, hydroelectricity in hydroelectric reservoirs and natural reservoirs to regulate load, reserve capacity, and utilize hydropower. research other renewable energy such as geothermal energy, tidal energy, etc.
(viii) Prioritize development of electricity produced by waste, solid waste, biomass, and cogeneration in order to remediate the environment, utilize agricultural by-products, promote afforestation and increase energy efficiency.
(ix) Increase electricity import from neighboring countries in the medium and long term; increase investment in utilization of foreign electricity sources.
(x) Review and research future nuclear energy development potentials.
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Ministry of Industry and Trade has made calculations based on 3 scenarios, including: Base load Scenario, High load Scenario, and High load Scenario serving operation[3]. In which, the High load Scenario serving operation introduces approximately 15% of reserve capacity for the additional electricity sources during 2021-2030 compared to High load Scenario (corresponding to 85% of planning implementation rate of the High load Scenario in 2030) for cases where electricity source investment is not implemented 100%. High load Scenario serving operation will guarantee electricity supply in case BOT electricity source projects fail to be implemented. To be specific:
a) Base load Scenario
Total capacity of power plants in Base load Scenario is 120.995 MW by 2030 and 284.660 MW by 2045 (excluding rooftop solar power installation and cogeneration). In which, coal-fired thermal electricity reaches 37.467 MW (31%) by 2030 and maintains until 2045 (13,2%); LNG electricity reaches 14.800 MW (12,2%) by 2030 and 28.400 MW (10%) by 2035 and maintains until 2045; land-based wind power reaches 11.700 MW (9,7%) by 2030 and 36.170 MW (12,7%) by 2045; offshore wind power remains undeveloped until 2030, reaches 30.000 MW (10,5%) by 2045; large-scale solar power remains at 8.736 MW (7,2%) by 2030 and reaches approximately 58.521 MW (20,6%) by 2045; biomass electricity and other renewable energy reaches 1.230 MW (1%) by 2030 and 5.160 MW (1,8%) by 2045; pumped-storage hydroelectricity and batteries reach 1.250 MW (1%) by 2030 and 5.160 MW (1,8%) by 2045. Details are under the attached Appendix.
b) High load Scenario
Total capacity of power plants in High load Scenario is 134.730 MW by 2030 and 387.875 MW by 2045 (excluding rooftop solar power installation and cogeneration). In which, coal-fired thermal electricity reaches 37.467 MW (27,8%) by 2030 and maintains until 2045 (9,7%); LNG electricity reaches 17.900 MW (13,3%) by 2030 and 31.400 MW (15,1%) by 2035 and maintains until 2045 (8,1%); land-based wind power reaches 13.921 MW (10,3%) by 2030 and 55.950 MW (14,4%) by 2045; offshore wind power reaches 4.000 MW (3%) by 2030 and 64.500 MW (16,6%) by 2045; large-scale solar power remains at 8.736 MW (6,5%) by 2030 and reaches approximately 75.987 MW (19,6%) by 2045; biomass electricity and other renewable energy reaches 1.230 MW (0,9%) by 2030 and 5.210 MW (1,3%) by 2045; pumped-storage hydroelectricity and batteries reach 2.450 MW (1,8%) by 2030 and 28.950 MW (7,5%) by 2045. Details are under the attached Appendix.
c) High load Scenario serving operation
In 2030, total capacity of power plants reaches 145.930 MW (excluding rooftop solar power installation and cogeneration sources). In which, coal-fired thermal electricity reaches 37.467 MW (25,7%) by 2030 and maintains until 2045 (9,7%); LNG electricity reaches 23.900 MW (16,4%) by 2030 and 31.400 MW (15,1%) by 2035 and maintains at 31.400 MW (8,1%) until 2045; land-based wind power reaches 16.121 MW (11%) by 2030 55.950 MW (14,4%) by 2045; offshore wind power reaches 7.000 MW (4,8%) by 2030 and 66.500 MW (16,6%) by 2045; large-scale solar power remains at 8.736 MW (6%) by 2030 and reaches approximately 76.000 MW (19,6%) by 2045; biomass electricity and other renewable energy reaches 1.230 MW (0,8%) by 2030 and 5.210 MW (1,3%) by 2045; pumped-storage hydroelectricity and batteries reach 2.450 MW (1,7%) by 2030 and 28.950 MW (7,5%) by 2045. Details are under the attached Appendix.
Remarks about calculation scenarios:
Year
...
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...
2030
2045
Base load Scenario
High load Scenario
High load Scenario for operation
Base load Scenario
High load Scenario
High load Scenario for operation
Total installed capacity (excluding rooftop solar power and cogeneration sources)
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120.995
134.730
145.930
284.660
387.875
387.875
Reserve percentage (excluding solar power)/Total installed capacity
%
39,90
...
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...
47,00
47,50
64,20
64,20
Percentage of land-based wind power capacity/Total installed capacity
%
9,7
10,3
11
...
...
...
14,4
14,4
Percentage of offshore wind power capacity/Total installed capacity
%
0
3
4,8
10,5
16,6
...
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...
Percentage of solar power capacity/Total installed capacity
%
7,2
6,5
6
20,6
16,1
19,6
Percentage of electricity generated by renewable energy/Total installed capacity
...
...
...
28,9
30,7
33,4
44,6
54,3
54,3
Percentage of renewable energy in total
%
16,4
...
...
...
18,2
27,3
30,2
30,2
CO2 emission
Million tonne
...
...
...
175
175
5. Review of coal-fired and gas electricity which were included in the revised 7th Electricity Planning but not in the 8th Electricity Planning (according to request for implementation of commitment at the COP26)
Among the total coal-fired thermal electricity capacity of 14.120 MW not included in the 8th Electricity Planning, 8.420 WM was assigned to state-owned corporations as project developers, including: EVN is assigned with 3.600 MW (Quang Trach II, Tan Phuoc I and Tan Phuoc II), Vietnam National Oil and Gas Group is assigned with 1.980 MW (Long Phu III), Vinacomin is assigned with 2.840 MW (Cam Pha III, Hai Phong III and Quynh Lap I); investment projects of BOT model is 4.500 MW (Quynh Lap II, Vung Ang 3, Long Phu II) and 1.200 MW (Quang Ninh III) is not assigned to investors.
During review and assessment of legal issues that arise as a result of failure to consider development of the aforementioned coal-fired electricity projects, Ministry of Industry and Trade deems legal risks in projects whose project developers are state-owned corporations non-existent, costs incurred by the corporations insignificant and to be dealt with as per the law.
With respect to 3 investment projects following BOT model, project developers of Vung Ang 3 and Long Phu II already applied for withdrawal from the projects and were approved by the Prime Minister so that investors can cease project development (Document No. 1771/TTg-CN allowing Samsung C&T Company to cease Vung Ang 3 Project; Document No. 852/TTg-CN allowing TATA Power Company to cease Long Phu II Project). The new Quynh Lap II BOT Project is assigned to Posco Energy Company by the Prime Minister for research and development of Quynh Lap II Thermal Power Plant with capacity of 2x600 MW in BOT model under Document No. 623/TTg-CN dated May 4, 2017. Posco Energy Company has not been officially assigned as the project developer. Posco Energy has promulgated numerous documents verifying their departure from research and development of coal-fired Quynh Lap II Project and their proposal for transition to LNG fuel and increase in Project capacity. Currently under the 8th Electricity Planning, Quynh Lap area is considered for development of a Quynh Lap LNG project for 2026-2030. However, since the Law on Public-Private Partnership (PPP) has entered into force, whether or not the project is developed following BOT model and whether or not Posco Energy is allowed to act as project developer entirely depend on the Law on PPP and guiding documents thereof.
Gas electricity projects include Kien Giang I and II Combined Cycle Gas Turbine Projects with capacity of 2x750 MW, PVN as project developer, expected operation in 2021-2022. Currently, costs incurred by PVN to develop these projects are approximately 1 billion VND. These projects are not taken into account in the draft 8th Electricity Planning until 2030 due to unidentified fuel sources. PVN is responsible for dealing with investment preparation costs as per the law.
6. Solar power projects that have had approved investors but have not been brought into operation
Under Notice No. 92/TB-VPCP of the Government Office on conclusion of the Government regarding the 8th Electricity Planning, regarding solar power projects that have been included in the revised 7th Electricity Planning but not brought into operation, introduce criteria and conditions for electricity purchase price, economic effectiveness, stability of the national electrical system, regional balance in order to take into serious consideration and report to the Government.
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Ministry of Industry and Trade has thoroughly assessed the implementation and legality of each project, promulgated Document No. 3787/BCT-DL dated July 4, 2022 and Document No. 412/BCT-DL dated July 22, 2022, and reported to the Prime Minister regarding review of the 8th Electricity Planning.
Ministry of Industry and Trade hereby requests remarks of the Government about solar power projects as follows:
Total costs incurred in the projects by the time of report for projects that have had investment guidelines and approved investors (total capacity of 2.428,42 MW) are estimated at approximately 12.700 billion VND (excluding implemented projects which are not funded by local governments). In which:
- Projects/parts of projects that have been built, inspected for their commissioning process but have not had electricity price regulated have total capacity of 88,5 MW and have incurred costs of approximately 2.249,2 billion VND;
- Projects that have been provided with land and entered into equipment procurement agreement have total capacity of 490,52 MW and incurred costs of approximately 10.074 billion VND;
- Projects that have been provided with land have total capacity of 45 MW;
- Projects that are having procedures for land provision adopted have total capacity of 1.773,2 MW and incurred costs of approximately 374,6 billion VND;
- Projects that do not have procedures for land provision adopted have total capacity of 23,2 MW and incurred costs of approximately 25,4 billion VND.
Details on the projects are mentioned under Appendix attached hereto and Document No. 412/BCT-DL dated July 22, 2022 of the Ministry of Industry and Trade.
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In order to avoid legal risks, prevent lawsuits, and compensate the investors, Ministry of Industry and Trade proposes continuing development of solar power projects whose investors have been approved (including built projects) until 2030 with total capacity of 2.428,42 MW. During the period that leads to 2030, if technical conditions of the national electrical grid improve, obtain more equipment for operating and absorbing more solar energy, and safety and efficiently operate electrical sources in the system or if multiple electrical sources are behind progress and requiring replacement, Ministry of Industry and Trade shall request EVN to calculate, inspect, and report to the Government for adjustment (if needed).
7. Regarding LNG import capacity until 2030 and total installed capacity until 2030
External costs (social costs to be incurred during electricity development) have not been taken into account when calculating technical matters in order to promulgate Resolution No. 55-NQ/TW and calculating optimal electrical sources, hence in 2030, coal-fired thermal electricity accounts for approximately 55 GW, wind power accounts for 22 GW and total capacity of thermal electricity sources accounts for approximately 77 GW.
According to the review of the 8th Electricity Planning following the COP26, the scale of coal-fired thermal electricity sources in 2030 reduces drastically to 37 GW, 18 GW lower than the scale under Resolution No. 55-NQ/TW, conforming to development trend of Vietnam, aiming for net zero emission by 2050. The 8th Electricity Planning has replaced this coal-fired thermal electricity with approximately 14 GW of LNG and make up for the rest with 12-15 GW of renewable energy (due to the fact that number of operating hours per day of wind power only equals 1/3 of that of coal-fired or gas electricity; number of operating hours per day of solar power only equals 1/4 of that of coal-fired or gas electricity). Thus, LNG import demands will surge to approximately 14-18 m3 in 2030 and approximately 13-16 m3 by 2045. Ministry of Industry and Trade deems the 8th Electricity Planning appropriate and not violating objectives set forth under Resolution No. 55-NQ/TW.
8. Issues requiring remarks of the Government
8.1. The exclusion of the aforementioned coal-fired and gas-fired thermal electricity projects in the 8th Electricity Planning is suitable with propositions of local governments and project developers. Legal risks are essentially absent.
State-owned corporations are responsible for dealing costs incurred for surveying and preparing for project investment as per the law.
Ministry of Industry and Trade hereby requests remarks of the Government about exclusion of aforementioned coal-fired thermal electricity projects that are no longer suitable in order to fulfill Vietnam’s commitment at the COP26.
8.2. Regarding solar power projects
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However, these projects must entirely comply with regulations and law on investment, construction, adhere to absorption capacity of the national electrical grid and the ability to release capacity of electrical grids; strictly comply with price structures at the time of operation, and assume responsibilities for project effectiveness according to approved regulations. Any violation discovered by inspecting authorities will be met with strict actions as per the law. In case of serious violations, revoke investment certificate and suspend projects in accordance with construction investment laws.
If the Prime Minister approves these projects for implementation until 2030, total electricity source capacity of the system in 2030 is approximately 133.878,5 MW for basic solution and approximately 148.358,5 MW for high-load solutions.
(ii) Stretch progress of solar power projects that have been in planning but have not had approved investors with total capacity of 4.136,25 MW (reported by Ministry of Industry and Trade under Document No. 3787/BCT-DL dated July 4, 2022) to the period following 2030. On an annual basis, review and calculate absorption ability of the national electrical grid, localized capacity release, and economic operation of the system. If necessary, report and request the Government to push to the period preceding 2030 if other sources are delayed in order supply sufficient socio-economic development of Vietnam and take advantage of cheap solar power rates.
8.3. Resolution No. 55-NQ/TW dated February 11, 2020 of the Politburo presents 3 electricity-related criteria which are:
- Total capacity of electricity sources by 2030 reaches approximately 125-130 GW.
- Electricity production reaches approximately 550-600 billion kWh.
- Be capable of importing approximately 8 billion m3 of LNG by 2030 and approximately 15 billion m3 of LNG by 2045.
The 8th Electricity Planning becomes a part of the General national energy development planning, in which it is expected that:
- Total planning capacity of electricity sources by 2030 reaches approximately 148 GW (including 2.428,42 MW of solar power if approved for implementation before 2030). In reality, electricity planning implementation usually does not yield 100% of planning capacity.
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- LNG import demand reaches 14-18 billion m3 by 2030 and approximately 13-16 m3 by 2045 which is higher than that under Resolution No. 55-NQ/TW due to reduced coal-fired thermal electricity scale.
Hence, Ministry of Industry and Trade deems the 8th Electricity Planning is appropriate and not violating objectives set forth under Resolution No. 55-NQ/TW. Ministry of Industry and Trade hereby requests remarks of the Government about this issue.
8.4. Hereby requests the Government to consider and approve the scheme for the 8th Electricity Planning with electricity source composition until 2030 as follows:
a) If 2.428,42 MW of capacity of the aforementioned solar power projects are not brought into operation before 2030: detail composition is specified under Presentation No. 2279/TTr-BCT dated April 29, 2022.
b) If 2.428,42 MW of capacity of the aforementioned solar power projects are brought into operation before 2030
Total capacity of power plants is approximately 120.995-148.358 MW (excluding rooftop solar power installation and cogeneration sources), in which: hydroelectricity (including small hydro) reaches 26.795-28.946 MW or19,5-22,1%; coal-fired thermal electricity reaches 37.467 MW or25,3-31%; gas-fired thermal electricity (including those using LNG) reaches 29.880-38.980 MW or 24,7-26,3%; non-hydroelectricity renewable energy (wind power, solar power, biomass, etc.) reaches 21.666-35.516 MW or 17,9-23,9%; electricity import reaches 3.937-5.000 MW or 3,3-3,4%.
For your information./.
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Attached document:
- Presentation No. 2279/TTr-BCT dated April 29, 2022
- Document No. 3787/BCT-DL dated July 4, 2022
APPENDIX:
CAPACITY BALANCE AND GROUPING RESULTS OF SOLAR POWER PROJECTS
1. Capacity balance results of calculation scenarios
a) Capacity balance in base load scenario (unit - MW)
Criteria/year
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...
...
2030
2035
2040
2045
National demand (Pmax)
59.389
86.493
113.952
135.596
...
...
...
Total installed capacity nationwide
103.067
131.450
184.360
245.133
305.380
Total installed capacity (excluding rooftop solar power and cogeneration sources)
93.862
120.995
...
...
...
229.650
284.660
Raw reserve percentage
58,0%
39,9%
51,7%
69,4%
85,7%
Reserve percentage (excluding solar power)
...
...
...
29,8%
34,2%
41,7%
47,5%
Coal-fired thermal electricity/biomass/ammonia electricity
28.867
37.467
37.467
37.467
...
...
...
Combined Cycle Gas Turbine + domestic gas thermal electricity, transition to LNG/hydrogen
10.886
14.930
14.930
14.930
14.930
Combined Cycle Gas Turbine using new LNG/hydrogen
3.500
14.800
...
...
...
28.400
28.400
Thermal electricity running on gas, hydrogen
0
150
1.800
9.000
15.600
Thermal electricity - Gas turbines running on oil
...
...
...
0
0
0
0
Hydroelectricity (including small hydro)
25.779
26.795
29.856
31.809
...
...
...
Land-based, coastal wind power
10.700
11.700
19.770
28.270
36.170
Offshore wind power
0
0
...
...
...
20.000
30.000
Large-scale solar power (MW)
8.736
8.736
19.987
37.471
58.521
Electricity of biomass and other renewable energy
...
...
...
1.230
3.090
4.910
5.160
Pumped-storage hydroelectricity and batteries
0
1.250
4.850
9.650
...
...
...
Imported
3.853
3.937
5.743
7.743
9.743
Rooftop solar power
7.755
7.755
...
...
...
10.983
16.220
Thermal electricity plant powering separate load (cogeneration)
1.450
2.700
3.300
4.500
4.500
Percentage
...
...
...
Coal-fired thermal electricity/biomass/ammonia electricity
30,8%
31,0%
21,7%
16,3%
...
...
...
Combined Cycle Gas Turbine + domestic gas thermal electricity, transition to LNG/hydrogen
11,6%
12,3%
8,6%
6,5%
5,2%
Combined Cycle Gas Turbine using new LNG/hydrogen
3,7%
12,2%
...
...
...
12,4%
10,0%
Thermal electricity running on gas, hydrogen
0,0%
0,1%
1,0%
3,9%
5,5%
Thermal electricity - Gas turbines running on oil
...
...
...
0,0%
0,0%
0,0%
0,0%
Hydroelectricity (including small hydro)
27,5%
22,1%
17,3%
13,9%
...
...
...
Land-based, coastal wind power
11,4%
9,7%
11,4%
12,3%
12,7%
Offshore wind power
0,0%
0,0%
...
...
...
8,7%
10,5%
Large-scale solar power (MW)
9,3%
7,2%
11,6%
16,3%
20,6%
Electricity of biomass and other renewable energy
...
...
...
1,0%
1,8%
2,1%
1,8%
Pumped-storage hydroelectricity and batteries
0,0%
1,0%
2,8%
4,2%
...
...
...
Imported
4,1%
3,3%
3,3%
3,4%
3,4%
b) Capacity balance in high load scenario (unit - MW)
Criteria/year
2025
...
...
...
2035
2040
2045
National demand (Pmax)
61.357
93.343
128.791
162.904
189.917
...
...
...
106.699
145.185
219.599
315.929
413.054
Total installed capacity (excluding rooftop solar power, cogeneration)
97.494
134.730
208.367
...
...
...
387.875
Raw reserve percentage
58,9%
44,3%
61,8%
83,0%
104,2%
Reserve percentage (excluding solar power)
44,7%
...
...
...
42,3%
53,6%
64,2%
Coal-fired thermal electricity/biomass/ammonia electricity
28.867
37.467
37.467
37.467
37.467
...
...
...
10.886
14.930
14.930
14.930
14.930
Combined Cycle Gas Turbine using new LNG/hydrogen
3.500
17.900
31.400
...
...
...
31.400
Thermal electricity running on gas, hydrogen
-
150
5.100
19.500
27.300
Thermal electricity - Gas turbines running on oil
561
...
...
...
-
-
-
Hydroelectricity (including small hydro)
26.795
28.946
33.654
34.414
35.139
...
...
...
12.716
13.921.
26.600
41.300
55.950
Offshore wind power
-
4.000
16.000
...
...
...
64.500
Large-scale solar power (MW)
8.736
8.736
25.034
47.893
75.987
Electricity of biomass and other renewable energy
980
...
...
...
3.090
4.960
5.210
Pumped-storage hydroelectricity and batteries
-
2.450
7.350
17.550
28.950
...
...
...
4.453
5.000
7.742
10.242
11.042
Rooftop solar power
7.755
7.755
7.932
...
...
...
20.679
Thermal electricity plant powering separate load (cogeneration)
1.450
2.700
3.300
4.500
4.500
Percentage
...
...
...
Coal-fired thermal electricity/biomass/ammonia electricity
29,6%
27,8%
18,0%
12,6%
9,7%
...
...
...
11,2%
11,1%
7,2%
5,0%
3,8%
Combined Cycle Gas Turbine using new LNG/hydrogen
3,6%
13,3%
15,1%
...
...
...
8,1%
Thermal electricity running on gas, hydrogen
0,0%
0,1%
2,4%
6,5%
7,0%
Thermal electricity - Gas turbines running on oil
0,6%
...
...
...
0,0%
0,0%
0,0%
Hydroelectricity (including small hydro)
27,5%
21,5%
16,2%
11,5%
9,1%
...
...
...
13,0%
10,3%
12,8%
13,9%
14,4%
Offshore wind power
0,0%
3,0%
7,7%
...
...
...
16,6%
Large-scale solar power (MW)
9,0%
6,5%
12,0%
16,1%
19,6%
Electricity of biomass and other renewable energy
1,0%
...
...
...
1,5%
1,7%
1,3%
Pumped-storage hydroelectricity and batteries
0,0%
1,8%
3,5%
5,9%
7,5%
...
...
...
4,6%
3,7%
3,7%
3,4%
2,8%
c) Balance capacity of high load scenario serving operation (unit - MW)
Criteria/year
2025
2030
...
...
...
2040
2045
National demand (Pmax)
61.357
93.343
128.791
162.904
189.917
Total installed capacity nationwide
...
...
...
156.385
219.599
315.929
413.054
Total installed capacity (excluding rooftop solar power, cogeneration)
98.394
145.930
208.367
298.156
...
...
...
Raw reserve percentage
60,4%
56,3%
61,8%
83,0%
104,2%
Reserve percentage (excluding solar power)
46,1%
47,0%
...
...
...
53,6%
64,2%
Coal-fired thermal electricity/biomass/ammonia electricity
28.867
37.467
37.467
37.467
37.467
Combined Cycle Gas Turbine + domestic gas thermal electricity, transition to LNG/hydrogen
...
...
...
14.930
14.930
14.930
14.930
Combined Cycle Gas Turbine using new LNG/hydrogen
3.500
23.900
31.400
31.400
...
...
...
Thermal electricity running on gas, hydrogen
0
150
5.100
19.500
27.300
Thermal electricity - Gas turbines running on oil
561
0
...
...
...
0
0
Hydroelectricity (including small hydro)
26.795
28.946
33.654
34.414
35.139
Land-based, coastal wind power
...
...
...
16.121
26.600
41.300
55.950
Offshore wind power
0
7.000
16.000
38.500
...
...
...
Large-scale solar power (MW)
8.736
8.736
25.034
47.893
75.987
Electricity of biomass and other renewable energy
980
1.230
...
...
...
4.960
5.210
Pumped-storage hydroelectricity and batteries
0
2.450
7.350
17.550
28.950
Imported
...
...
...
5.000
7.742
10.242
11.042
Rooftop solar power
7.755
7.755
7.932
13.273
...
...
...
Thermal electricity plant powering separate load (cogeneration)
1.450
2.700
3.300
4.500
4.500
Percentage
...
...
...
Coal-fired thermal electricity/biomass/ammonia electricity
29,3%
25,7%
18,0%
12,6%
9,7%
Combined Cycle Gas Turbine + domestic gas thermal electricity, transition to LNG/hydrogen
...
...
...
10,2%
7,2%
5,0%
3,8%
Combined Cycle Gas Turbine using new LNG/hydrogen
3,6%
16,4%
15,1%
10,5%
...
...
...
Thermal electricity running on gas, hydrogen
0,0%
0,1%
2,4%
6,5%
7,0%
Thermal electricity - Gas turbines running on oil
0,6%
0,0%
...
...
...
0,0%
0,0%
Hydroelectricity (including small hydro)
27,2%
19,8%
16,2%
11,5%
9,1%
Land-based, coastal wind power
...
...
...
11,0%
12,8%
13,9%
14,4%
Offshore wind power
0,0%
4,8%
7,7%
12,9%
...
...
...
Large-scale solar power (MW)
8,9%
6,0%
12,0%
16,1%
19,6%
Electricity of biomass and other renewable energy
1,0%
0,8%
...
...
...
1,7%
1,3%
Pumped-storage hydroelectricity and batteries
0,0%
1,7%
3,5%
5,9%
7,5%
Imported
...
...
...
3,4%
3,7%
3,4%
2,8%
2. Grouping of solar power projects
a) Projects/parts of projects with completed construction
There is 1 project/part of project with total capacity of 88,5MW that has been built, invested for construction, undergoing commissioning, and awaiting electricity price. Part of project whose price has not been priced is estimated at approximately 2.249,2 billion VND.
b) Projects that have been assigned with land and entered into equipment purchase agreement
There are 8 projects with total capacity of 490,52 MW that have been assigned with land and entered into equipment purchase agreement. Incurred costs are estimated at approximately 10.074 billion VND at the time of reporting.
...
...
...
There is 1 project with total capacity of 45 MW that has had investment guidelines and assigned with land. Incurred costs are not provided by local governments and hence unidentified at the time of reporting.
d) Projects/parts of projects that have had investment guidelines and are adopting procedures for land assignment
There are 12 projects/parts of projects with total capacity of 1.773,2 MW that have had investment guidelines and are adopting land assignment procedures in various levels. Incurred costs are estimated approximately at 374,6 billion VND at the time of reporting (excluding projects with unidentified costs).
dd) Projects/parts of projects that have had investment guidelines but have not adopted land assignment procedures
There is 1 project/part of project with total capacity of 23,2 MW that has had investment guidelines but has not adopted land assignment procedures.
[1] Load demand of 2021-2030 will be updated by the Ministry of Industry and Trade during electricity coordination and development and reported to the Prime Minister in case of irregular changes in order to ensure timely coordination. Load forecasting results of 2031-2045 are for orientation purposes based on data updated at the time of developing the 8th Electricity Planning and will be more accurate in the development of National Electricity Planning of 2031-2040 and vision towards 2055.
[2] Notice No. 308/TB-VPCP dated November 9, 2021; Notice No. 314/TB-VPCP dated November 20, 2021; Notice No. 54/TB-VPCP dated February 26, 2022; Notice No. 116/TB-VPCP dated April 17, 2022 of the Office of the Government
...
...
...
[4] USA: 15% for wind power and solar power. France: 20% for wind power and solar power. Japan: 7% for wind power and solar power. Korea: 4% for wind power and solar power. China: 24% for wind power and solar power. Indonesia: 6% for wind power and solar power. Thailand: 6% for wind power and solar power.